Supply Chain Secrets
The Supply Chain Secrets Podcast cuts through the noise to bring you real, unfiltered insights from the front lines of global logistics. Whether you’re a shipper, NVO, carrier, or just someone who needs to stay ahead of market shifts, we deliver analysis and hard-hitting conversations that actually matter. Visit nyshex.com/podcast to register to attend live!
Episodes
140 episodes
Congestion Eats 8.5% of Supply as Tender Season Looms
Port congestion is now absorbing 8.5% of the global container fleet, roughly four times the pre-pandemic norm, and it may not clear before the Chinese New Year peak. On NYFI, Asia to US East Coast rates sit at an all-time high, with rates to bo...
Pacific Rates Near 2024 Levels and What's Driving Them
Pacific rates on both U.S. coasts are near 2024 levels, and the data Lars Jensen reviews points to carrier capacity management as the driver.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:How Pacific vessel utilization has sh...
New Co-Host, Same Data: Rich Heath Joins the Pod as Pacific Rates Spike
Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, joins Lars Jensen as the new co-host this week, stepping in as Caroline Weaver moves on to her next chapter. And there's plenty to dig into on his first episode.In this episode, Lars Jensen ...
Caroline's Final Episode Cracks the Pacific Rate Mystery
This week's Supply Chain Secrets doubles as Caroline Weaver's send off as co-host, and she goes out with the market question everyone's been asking: why have Pacific spot rates gone so volatile? In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caro...
Reliability Just Hit Its Worst Mark Since Before the New Alliances
Ocean carrier reliability just hit its lowest point since before the current alliance structure took effect, with typhoon-driven port congestion in Asia dragging Shanghai down to just 21% on-time arrivals in July.In this episode, Lars Je...
Panama Canal Tightens Transits Ahead of Chinese New Year Rush
New restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority are cutting daily transits starting in September, well ahead of the Chinese New Year peak season shippers depend on that route to serve.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cov...
Overcapacity Looks Unavoidable in 2027-2028: Here's the Math.
Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down...
Rates Flatline as Red Sea Starts Reopening
NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:Why NYFI and SCFI track diffe...
Same Trade Lane, Different Numbers: Decoding Freight Indices
Ocean freight rates are past peak season on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe, but a widening gap between the NYFI and SCFI on Asia-US West Coast is raising questions about which number actually reflects the market.In this episode, ...
Reliability Stalls: Why Gemini and Premier Are Nearly 40 Points Apart
Global schedule reliability slipped again in June, and the gap between carrier alliances is now too wide to ignore.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:June reliability data: global on-time performance down ...
From Hormuz to the Amazon: A Market Under Pressure
Ocean freight this week is a study in divergence: Pacific rates are splitting by coast, Asia-Europe spreads are widening, and a new blockade declaration just widened the Middle East risk map. Even Lars's connection from France needed a reroute ...
Why the Hormuz Toll Doesn't Survive the Math
President Trump says he'll charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Lars Jensen ran the numbers, and they don't hold up.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:The math behind why a 20% Hormu...
Pacific Peak or Phantom Spike? And the Return to Suez Begins.
Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption.In this ...
West Coast Rates Entangle East Coast: What That Signal Means
Transpacific spot rates are skyrocketing while Asia-North Europe tells a completely different story, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most container traffic after a week of missile exchanges between Iran and the US.In this epis...
Schrödinger's Strait: Is Hormuz Open, Closed, or Both?
Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise...
Rate Rally, Hormuz Memorandum, and an 88% Chance of El Niño
Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut thr...
Supply, Demand, and Three Crises: What's Actually Moving Rates Right Now
Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly.In this episode, Lars Jensen and C...
Consumer Sentiment, Container Volumes, and Why the Correlation Doesn't Exist
Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do ...
Peak Season Is Loading: Supply, Demand, and a New Hormuz Attack
Freight rates on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific are strengthening and this week Lars breaks down why the driver is fundamentals, not Hormuz. Meanwhile, a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman adds fresh tension to an already fragile situation...
Hormuz Holds, El Niño Looms: Stacking the Risks for 2027
Transpacific rates are grinding higher into peak season while the Hormuz crisis shows no sign of resolution, and a new weather risk is quietly building for the Panama Canal.In this episode, Lars Jensen and guest host Don Davis cover:...
Peak Season Incoming, Hormuz Holds, and Global Demand Takes a Hit
Pacific rates are flatlining but peak season signals are building, with freight futures pointing to a $900 per FEU jump on Asia-North Europe by July. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global container demand fell 2.4% ...
The Crisis That Isn't Moving Global Rates
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for two months, yet TransPacific and Asia-Europe freight rates are barely moving compared to the disruptions of 2024-2025. This week, Lars and Caroline put the Hormuz crisis in proper context and cover the o...
Hormuz Escalates, Plastics at Risk, and Reliability Still Broken
Iran has seized two MSC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, bookings into the Persian Gulf have collapsed 66% year over year, and Somali pirates are back. The maritime risk picture is deteriorating fast.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caro...
Rate Spreads, Hormuz Chaos, and a 66-Year Consumer Confidence Low
Ocean freight markets are sending mixed signals this week: Asia-Europe spot rates are falling, Pacific rates are ticking up, and Atlantic rates jumped sharply, but the bigger story is the widening spread between what different shippers are payi...
Hormuz, Oil Prices, and Why Rates Aren’t Spiking (Yet)
Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected.In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical...
